Melbourne Property News Monthly Wrap – April 2018

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Melbourne median plateaus in April.

Over April’s weekends more than 3,387 auctions were reported to the Real Estate Institute of Victoria (REIV) with more than 1,704 sales recorded. Approximately 969 properties passed in, with 460 on a vendor bid. April’s clearance rate averaged 67% – down on March’s 68% and down on April last year at 79%.

The trend through April and the First Quarter is one of falling home values in most Australian cities. But not in Melbourne, which still managed to post a marginal gain of 0.1% in the First Quarter, lifting the house price median to $914,518. This is almost at flatline – the lowest Melbourne quarterly house value growth in 5.5 years. (Domain Group)

Melbourne units did better though over the quarter with 0.7% price growth taking the unit median up to $505,861.

Where is Melbourne headed now?

It’s worth considering ‘after market-peak’ patterns in previous years. After all the last market peaks in Melbourne – in 2004, 2008 and 2012, house values dropped back markedly over the following months.

– The 2004 peak dropped by 2% over the following 9 months.
– The 2008 peak dropped by 10% over the following 11 months.
– And the 2012 peak dropped by 8% over the following 17 months.
(CoreLogic)

It makes sense to assume the pattern will repeat and Melbourne house values will follow the Autumn 2017 market peak with a similar slide down. Sydney has certainly slid (-3.9%) since it’s market peak in July 2017.

On the brighter side, some Real Estate Agents are reporting that all the media reports about the cooling market has stimulated more people to go out there on the hunt for a good buy. So is Melbourne property resilient enough to shrug off an adjustment?

Stay tuned – May will have some answers!

Craig Knudsen
Principal Advisor
Vendor Marketing

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